NFL Strength of Schedule 2026: Which Teams Have the Hardest and Easiest Path

The NFL schedule release always sparks excitement, but beyond the prime-time matchups and rivalry games, one factor often shapes a team’s season before kickoff: Strength of Schedule (SOS).

As the 2026 NFL season approaches, analysts, bettors, fantasy football managers, and fans are already studying which teams received favorable schedules and which franchises face an uphill battle. While talent and injuries ultimately determine success, schedule difficulty can significantly impact playoff races, win totals, and fantasy football outcomes.

Based on opponents’ combined 2025 records, the Chicago Bears enter 2026 with the league’s toughest schedule, while the Cleveland Browns have the easiest path. However, there are several interesting stories hidden within the rankings.

Let’s break down the 2026 NFL Strength of Schedule rankings, identify the biggest winners and losers, and examine how schedule difficulty could influence the upcoming season.

What Is NFL Strength of Schedule?

NFL Strength of Schedule measures how difficult a team’s upcoming season is expected to be based on the performance of its opponents.

The most common method calculates SOS using the combined winning percentage of all opponents from the previous season. For 2026, the NFL uses opponents’ records from the 2025 season.

For example:

• A schedule filled with playoff teams and division champions creates a high SOS.
• A schedule featuring multiple teams that finished below .500 creates a lower SOS.

While this metric isn’t perfect, it provides a useful snapshot of which teams may have favorable or challenging roads ahead.

2026 NFL Teams With the Hardest Schedules

According to official schedule calculations based on 2025 records, these five teams face the toughest schedules in 2026.

1. Chicago Bears (.550)

The Bears have the toughest schedule in the NFL heading into 2026.

Their opponents posted a combined winning percentage of .550 in 2025, making Chicago’s road to another NFC North title extremely difficult.

Why it’s so hard:

• First-place schedule after winning the NFC North.
• Matchups against multiple playoff teams.
• Strong NFC North competition.
• Games against elite AFC contenders.

The Bears will need another major leap from their roster and coaching staff if they hope to repeat their division success.

2. Miami Dolphins (.542)

Miami faces the second-toughest schedule in the league.

The Dolphins are set to battle several playoff-caliber opponents, including difficult AFC matchups that could significantly impact postseason positioning.

Key challenge:

The AFC remains loaded with contenders, leaving little room for error.

3. Arizona Cardinals (.538)

Arizona’s schedule ranks among the league’s most difficult.

What’s especially concerning is that several projection models also rank Arizona’s schedule as one of the hardest based on future win expectations, not just past records.

The Cardinals must navigate:

• A competitive NFC West.
• Multiple playoff-caliber opponents.
• Tough road environments.

4. Green Bay Packers (.538)

Tied with Arizona, Green Bay faces another difficult year.

The Packers benefit from an established roster but will be tested by:

• NFC North rivals.
• Cross-conference contenders.
• Several projected playoff teams.

Every division game could have major postseason implications.

5. Kansas City Chiefs (.536)

The Chiefs continue paying the price for sustained success.

As perennial contenders, Kansas City consistently draws difficult schedules due to the NFL’s scheduling formula.

Challenges include:

• Multiple division winners.
• Elite AFC opponents.
• Increased target on their back as a championship contender.

Yet history suggests counting out the Chiefs is rarely a smart move.

Teams With the Easiest Schedules in 2026

Now let’s look at the teams that appear to have the smoothest path based on opponent records.

1. Cleveland Browns (.429)

The Browns have the easiest schedule in the NFL entering 2026.

Their opponents combined for just a .429 winning percentage in 2025.

Reasons for the favorable draw:

• Last-place scheduling benefits.
• Several games against rebuilding teams.
• Fewer matchups against elite conference contenders.

This doesn’t guarantee success, but it creates a significant opportunity for improvement.

2. New Orleans Saints (.434)

The Saints received one of the league’s most favorable schedules.

Several analysts believe New Orleans could become one of the season’s biggest surprises because of this advantageous slate.

Benefits include:

• Fewer elite opponents.
• Manageable road schedule.
• Opportunities to build momentum early.

3. Cincinnati Bengals (.450)

Despite possessing a talented roster, Cincinnati also benefits from one of the NFL’s easiest schedules.

This combination could make the Bengals one of the most dangerous teams in the AFC.

Advantages:

• Lower average opponent winning percentage.
• Several winnable midseason matchups.
• Favorable playoff positioning opportunities.

4. Indianapolis Colts (.465)

The Colts sit near the bottom of the SOS rankings, giving them a realistic chance to outperform expectations.

If Indianapolis can capitalize on favorable scheduling, a playoff push is possible.

5. Atlanta Falcons (.465)

Atlanta rounds out the top five easiest schedules.

The Falcons have steadily improved in recent seasons, and a favorable schedule may help accelerate that progress.

Full 2026 NFL Strength of Schedule Rankings

Hardest to Easiest

Rank	Team	Opponent Win %
1	Chicago Bears	.550
2	Miami Dolphins	.542
3	Arizona Cardinals	.538
4	Green Bay Packers	.538
5	Kansas City Chiefs	.536
6	New England Patriots	.531
7	Las Vegas Raiders	.529
8	Buffalo Bills	.528
9	Los Angeles Chargers	.522
10	Carolina Panthers	.521
11	Minnesota Vikings	.519
12	New York Jets	.517
13	Los Angeles Rams	.516
14	Seattle Seahawks	.514
15	Denver Broncos	.512
16	Washington Commanders	.502
17	New York Giants	.498
18	San Francisco 49ers	.497
19	Pittsburgh Steelers	.495
20	Dallas Cowboys	.493
21	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	.491
22	Jacksonville Jaguars	.490
23	Philadelphia Eagles	.481
24	Baltimore Ravens	.479
25	Tennessee Titans	.476
26	Houston Texans	.474
27	Detroit Lions	.467
28	Atlanta Falcons	.465
29	Indianapolis Colts	.465
30	Cincinnati Bengals	.450
31	New Orleans Saints	.434
32	Cleveland Browns	.429

Source: NFL opponent records from the 2025 season.

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Why Strength of Schedule Isn’t Everything

While SOS is valuable, history shows it shouldn’t be treated as a crystal ball.

See also: CFL Schedule 2026: Grey Cup Date, All Teams, and How to Watch in the USA

Several factors can dramatically change schedule difficulty:

Injuries

A team projected to win 12 games can quickly become average if key players are injured.

Coaching Changes

New coaches often create dramatic turnarounds. Teams that looked weak in 2025 could become playoff contenders in 2026.

Rookie Impact

Quarterbacks and star rookies can transform franchises faster than expected.

Free Agency

NFL rosters change significantly every offseason, making previous records less predictive.

Because of these variables, many analysts now also use projected win totals and betting markets to evaluate schedule strength.

Which Teams Benefit the Most?

Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals may be the biggest winner.

A talented roster combined with one of the easiest schedules could make Cincinnati a legitimate AFC title contender.

New Orleans Saints

The Saints received a favorable draw and could outperform preseason expectations.

Cleveland Browns

No team has a better opportunity to improve its record based purely on schedule difficulty.

Which Teams Face the Biggest Challenge?

Chicago Bears

Chicago’s rise to the top of the NFC North now comes with a difficult first-place schedule.

Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins must navigate one of the toughest schedules while competing in a stacked AFC.

Arizona Cardinals

Arizona faces both a difficult division and one of the hardest overall schedules in football.

Final Thoughts

The NFL’s scheduling formula rewards struggling teams and challenges successful ones, creating competitive balance across the league.

Heading into 2026:

• The Chicago Bears face the toughest road.
• The Miami Dolphins, Arizona Cardinals, Green Bay Packers, and Kansas City Chiefs also draw difficult slates.
• The Cleveland Browns, New Orleans Saints, and Cincinnati Bengals appear to have the easiest paths.

However, schedule strength is only one piece of the puzzle. Injuries, coaching decisions, player development, and unexpected breakout teams will ultimately determine who reaches the playoffs.

Still, as preseason predictions begin, strength of schedule offers one of the clearest early indicators of which franchises may have a smoother journey and which teams will need to overcome significant obstacles to achieve success.

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